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Browns
Away—–—
Buccaneers
HomeUpcoming20 Sept, 18:00 BSTRaymond James Stadium
Game details
20 Sept, 18:00 BST
Raymond James Stadium
Week 2 / Game Preview
Bucs passing game meets a vulnerable Cleveland secondary
Tampa Bay’s efficient short-game start has a favorable matchup, while Cleveland’s backfield hinges on a questionable lead runner.
01 / The takeaway
Mayfield’s matchup is the headline
Baker Mayfield opened with an 82.14% completion rate and a 14.02% completion percentage over expectation, then draws a Cleveland defense that has allowed 0.79 EPA per opposing dropback. Baker Mayfield also faces a defense that has allowed 4 passing touchdowns, making his 1.5-touchdown passing prop a focal point.
Baker Mayfield82.14%Completion rate
Baker Mayfield14.02%CPOE
Baker Mayfield0.79Opp. EPA/dropback
02 / The takeaway
Egbuka has the high-leverage role
Emeka Egbuka owns a 58.74% air-yards share and has produced 1.97 yards per route, while Cleveland has allowed 183 receiving yards to wide receivers. Emeka Egbuka is questionable, so his availability is especially important to Tampa Bay’s downfield plans.
Emeka Egbuka58.74%Air%
Emeka Egbuka1.97YPRR
Emeka Egbuka183Opp. Rec yds
03 / The takeaway
Judkins has volume but little early efficiency
Quinshon Judkins handled a 92.31% carry share and 65% of Cleveland’s offensive snaps, but he managed 2.75 yards per carry and -0.23 rushing EPA per carry. Quinshon Judkins is questionable entering a matchup with a 47.5-yard rushing prop.
Quinshon Judkins92.31%Car%
Quinshon Judkins65%Snap%
Quinshon Judkins2.75YPC
Tampa Bay can lean into the pass
Baker Mayfield’s 4.69 intended air yards per throw point to a controlled, underneath approach rather than a relentless vertical attack. Baker Mayfield still posted -0.17 EPA per play, however, so the pristine completion numbers have not yet translated into consistently efficient offense. Cleveland’s early allowance profile offers a major chance for that conversion to arrive.
Baker Mayfield4.69IAY
Baker Mayfield-0.17EPA/DB
Egbuka, Godwin and the Browns’ perimeter test
Emeka Egbuka generated 0.79 receiving EPA per target, pairing his deep opportunity with strong early efficiency. Chris Godwin Jr. generated 0.72 receiving EPA per target on a much smaller 2.1% air-yards share, suggesting a complementary underneath role. Chris Godwin Jr. faces a defense that has allowed 12 receptions to wide receivers, leaving room for both routes of attack if Egbuka is active.
Emeka Egbuka0.79EPA/Tgt
Chris Godwin Jr.0.72EPA/Tgt
Chris Godwin Jr.2.1%Air%
Cleveland’s passing offense needs a cleaner process
Deshaun Watson completed 72.73% of his throws and posted a 10.32% completion percentage over expectation, but Deshaun Watson registered -0.21 EPA per play under a 40% pressure rate. Deshaun Watson faces a defense with a 2.7% sack rate against opposing quarterbacks, which may give Cleveland a better environment to turn accurate throws into productive drives. Denzel Boston is the most explosive-looking early outlet, with a 50% air-yards share and 1.29 receiving EPA per target.
Deshaun Watson72.73%Completion rate
Deshaun Watson10.32%CPOE
Deshaun Watson-0.21EPA/DB
Sources & methodology
AI analysis of the player usage, efficiency and matchup data available before kickoff. Early-season samples are limited; missing data is not treated as zero. This preview remains separate from the postgame review.
- NFL team depth charts via nflverse
- Betting markets and kickoff weather
- NFL player statistics via nflverse
Data checked 19 Sept 2026, 12:36 UK time. Individual sources can update at different times.