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Saints
Away24–17
Ravens
HomeFinal20 Sept, 18:00 BSTM&T Bank Stadium
Final · Details
20 Sept, 18:00 BST
M&T Bank Stadium
Week 2 / Game Preview
Baltimore’s ground-game edge meets New Orleans’ high-volume passing test
The Ravens bring a concentrated rushing workload into a matchup that could force the Saints to keep throwing through their top options.
01 / The takeaway
Henry owns Baltimore’s rushing script
Derrick Henry handled an 80% RB carry share and received 6 red-zone carries in the opening sample. Derrick Henry faces the Saints allowing 163 rushing yards per game to RBs—3rd-most in the NFL. His concentrated workload and that early positional allowance are encouraging, but the group allowance is not a projection for Henry alone.
Derrick Henry80%Car%
Derrick Henry6RZ Car
Derrick Henry92.5Rush yds line
02 / The takeaway
Shough faces a difficult efficiency matchup
Tyler Shough threw 56 passes in the opening sample, yet produced -0.02 EPA per play while facing pressure on 22.2% of his dropbacks. Tyler Shough now faces a Ravens defense that has allowed -0.44 EPA per dropback—3rd-lowest in the NFL, putting a premium on converting volume into efficient throws.
Tyler Shough56Att
Tyler Shough-0.02EPA/DB
Tyler Shough22.2%Prss%
03 / The takeaway
Olave is the Saints’ downfield engine
Chris Olave accounted for a 48.45% air-yards share and averaged 18.06 intended air yards per target, the clearest indication that New Orleans is willing to build explosive chances around him. Chris Olave’s 71-yard receiving line reflects that high-leverage role despite a matchup in which Baltimore has allowed 130 receiving yards per game to WRs—16th-most in the NFL.
Chris Olave48.45%Air%
Chris Olave18.06aDOT
Chris Olave71Rec yds line
The Derrick Henry case is volume plus efficiency
Derrick Henry logged 24 carries and an expected 18.31 rushing fantasy points per game in the opening sample, while playing 54% of Baltimore’s offensive snaps. Derrick Henry also averaged 6 yards per carry and 3.96 yards after contact per carry, so the production was not simply a product of raw opportunity. New Orleans has allowed 163 rushing yards per game to RBs—3rd-most in the NFL, though Derrick Henry faces a defense allowing -0.01 EPA per designed run—13th-highest in the NFL.
Derrick Henry24Car
Derrick Henry18.31xRush/G
Derrick Henry54%Snap%
Jackson can attack an efficient Saints front
Lamar Jackson delivered 0.38 EPA per pass play and 4.8 completion percentage points over expectation in the opening sample. Lamar Jackson faces a defense that has allowed 0.01 EPA per dropback—15th-lowest in the NFL and has a 2.44% sack rate—6th-lowest in the NFL. That combination suggests New Orleans has limited pressure results even while its overall dropback efficiency has been closer to neutral.
Lamar Jackson0.38EPA/DB
Lamar Jackson4.8%CPOE
Lamar Jackson0.01Opp. EPA/dropback15th-lowest in the NFL allowed
The Saints’ passing tree narrows around Olave
Chris Olave ran 55 routes and commanded a 25% target share, pairing volume with a 3.31-yard average per route. Juwan Johnson received 3 red-zone targets, offering a shorter-area scoring complement to Chris Olave’s vertical role. Juwan Johnson faces a Baltimore defense that has allowed only 13 receiving yards per game to TEs—joint-2nd-fewest in the NFL, a notably tougher draw than Olave’s wide receiver matchup.
Chris Olave55Routes
Chris Olave25%
Sources & methodology
AI analysis of the player usage, efficiency and matchup data available before kickoff. Opponent yardage, receptions, touchdowns and PPR points are per team game for the stated position group. EPA is per play; designed-run EPA includes all positions and excludes scrambles. Allowance ranks run from most to least; sack-rate ranks run from lowest to highest. Recent opponent figures use the last four played games, while recent player usage uses the last four calendar weeks. Early-season samples are limited; missing data is not treated as zero. This preview remains separate from the postgame review.
- NFL team depth charts via nflverse
- Betting markets and kickoff weather
- NFL player statistics via nflverse
Data checked 19 Sept 2026, 12:40 UK time. Individual sources can update at different times.