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Saints
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Ravens
HomeUpcoming20 Sept, 18:00 BSTM&T Bank Stadium
Game details
20 Sept, 18:00 BST
M&T Bank Stadium
Week 2 / Game Preview
Baltimore’s ground-game edge meets New Orleans’ high-volume passing test
The Ravens bring a concentrated rushing workload into a matchup that could force the Saints to keep throwing through their top options.
01 / The takeaway
Henry owns Baltimore’s rushing script
Derrick Henry handled an 80% carry share and received 6 red-zone carries in the opening sample, making the Ravens’ preferred way to control this matchup unusually clear. Derrick Henry’s 92.5-yard rushing line asks him to clear a substantial number, but his workload and the Saints’ allowance of 163 rushing yards give that number a logical foundation.
Derrick Henry80%Car%
Derrick Henry6RZ Car
Derrick Henry92.5Rush yds line
02 / The takeaway
Shough faces a difficult efficiency matchup
Tyler Shough threw 56 passes in the opening sample, yet produced -0.02 EPA per play while facing pressure on 22.2% of his dropbacks. Tyler Shough now faces a Ravens defense that has allowed -0.44 EPA per dropback to opposing quarterbacks, putting a premium on converting volume into efficient throws.
Tyler Shough56Att
Tyler Shough-0.02EPA/DB
Tyler Shough22.2%Prss%
03 / The takeaway
Olave is the Saints’ downfield engine
Chris Olave accounted for a 48.45% air-yards share and averaged 18.06 intended air yards per target, the clearest indication that New Orleans is willing to build explosive chances around him. Chris Olave’s 71-yard receiving line reflects that high-leverage role despite a matchup in which Baltimore has allowed 130 receiving yards to opposing wide receivers.
Chris Olave48.45%Air%
Chris Olave18.06aDOT
Chris Olave71Rec yds line
The Derrick Henry case is volume plus efficiency
Derrick Henry logged 24 carries and an expected 18.31 rushing fantasy points per game in the opening sample, while playing 54% of Baltimore’s offensive snaps. Derrick Henry also averaged 6 yards per carry and 3.96 yards after contact per carry, so the production was not simply a product of raw opportunity. New Orleans has allowed 163 rushing yards to running backs, though Derrick Henry faces a defense allowing -0.01 EPA on designed runs.
Derrick Henry24Car
Derrick Henry18.31xRush/G
Derrick Henry54%Snap%
Jackson can attack an efficient Saints front
Lamar Jackson delivered 0.38 EPA per pass play and 4.8 completion percentage points over expectation in the opening sample. Lamar Jackson faces a defense that has allowed 0.01 EPA per dropback to opposing quarterbacks and has a 2.44% sack rate against opposing quarterbacks. That combination suggests New Orleans has limited pressure results even while its overall dropback efficiency has been closer to neutral.
Lamar Jackson0.38EPA/DB
Lamar Jackson4.8%CPOE
Lamar Jackson0.01Opp. EPA/dropback
The Saints’ passing tree narrows around Olave
Chris Olave ran 55 routes and commanded a 25% target share, pairing volume with a 3.31-yard average per route. Juwan Johnson received 3 red-zone targets, offering a shorter-area scoring complement to Chris Olave’s vertical role. Juwan Johnson faces a Baltimore defense that has allowed only 13 receiving yards to opposing tight ends, a notably tougher draw than Olave’s wide receiver matchup.
Chris Olave55Routes
Chris Olave25%Tgt%
Chris Olave3.31
Sources & methodology
AI analysis of the player usage, efficiency and matchup data available before kickoff. Early-season samples are limited; missing data is not treated as zero. This preview remains separate from the postgame review.
- NFL team depth charts via nflverse
- Betting markets and kickoff weather
- NFL player statistics via nflverse
Data checked 19 Sept 2026, 12:40 UK time. Individual sources can update at different times.