Green Bay's run game isn't just a product of its opponents. Against Minnesota they managed −0.429 EPA per run, when the Vikings allowed −0.271 in their other game. Against the Jets it was −0.441, when the Jets allowed −0.096 in theirs. Their success rate has dropped from 44.0% with Jacobs in 2025 to 33.3%, against a league average of 40.0%.

Atlanta's front makes it harder. They've allowed −0.219 EPA per run, 10th best, and stuffed 23.7% of runs at or behind the line. The caveat: that's two games, and last season they were below average (−0.015 EPA allowed, 43.4% success).

Weak rushing teams that led by seven or more at half-time ran on only 46.3% of second-half plays, against 51.5% for everyone else. In 2025 Green Bay threw deep on 18.2% of targets when ahead by a touchdown or more, more often than in close games (14.9%). A Green Bay lead points to more throws, which keeps Watson and Golden busy and leaves Atlanta a way back into the game.

• Jordan Love has been sacked or hit on 24.4% of dropbacks, and right tackle Zach Bako-Bewele is out for the season, but Atlanta have got to the quarterback on only 14.6%.
• Jayden Reed (back) isn't expected to play, which opens up snaps for Skyy Moore.
• Kyle Pitts needs Atlanta chasing: his share of Penix's targets rises to 19.2% when they trail by seven or more, from 13.6% when they lead.
• Michael Penix Jr. makes his first start of the season against a defence that has allowed 20+ yards on 3.1% of passes.

Green Bay's run game isn't just a product of its opponents. Against Minnesota they managed −0.429 EPA per run, when the Vikings allowed −0.271 in their other game. Against the Jets it was −0.441, when the Jets allowed −0.096 in theirs. Their success rate has dropped from 44.0% with Jacobs in 2025 to 33.3%, against a league average of 40.0%.

Atlanta's front makes it harder. They've allowed −0.219 EPA per run, 10th best, and stuffed 23.7% of runs at or behind the line. The caveat: that's two games, and last season they were below average (−0.015 EPA allowed, 43.4% success).

Weak rushing teams that led by seven or more at half-time ran on only 46.3% of second-half plays, against 51.5% for everyone else. In 2025 Green Bay threw deep on 18.2% of targets when ahead by a touchdown or more, more often than in close games (14.9%). A Green Bay lead points to more throws, which keeps Watson and Golden busy and leaves Atlanta a way back into the game.

• Jordan Love has been sacked or hit on 24.4% of dropbacks, and right tackle Zach Bako-Bewele is out for the season, but Atlanta have got to the quarterback on only 14.6%.
• Jayden Reed (back) isn't expected to play, which opens up snaps for Skyy Moore.
• Kyle Pitts needs Atlanta chasing: his share of Penix's targets rises to 19.2% when they trail by seven or more, from 13.6% when they lead.
• Michael Penix Jr. makes his first start of the season against a defence that has allowed 20+ yards on 3.1% of passes.