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Carolina have lost 59–37 and won 34–3: only their passing has looked the same · SecondGM

Week 3 / Game Preview

Carolina have lost 59–37 and won 34–3: only their passing has looked the same

Bryce Young's passing grades strong in both games, and Cleveland's pass rush sits 23rd. Almost everything else about Carolina has swung from one week to the next.

3 min read

The number that matters0.28 EPA per dropback

Bryce Young this season, with Carolina's passing strong in both the 59–37 defeat and the 34–3 winCleveland's pass rush sits 23rd, below average by consensus

How it plays out

What each half-time score means for your lineup

24.1%
Carolina lead by 8+
Carolina drop back on 51.6% of plays when leading by seven or more, so more carries for Chuba Hubbard, but they kept throwing while well ahead of Atlanta.
27.8%
Carolina lead by 1–7
Tetairoa McMillan's share barely moves: about a quarter of the targets whatever the score.
8.1%
Level
Both offences stay close to their normal mix.
23.4%
Cleveland lead by 1–7
Little to go on: Cleveland have led by seven or more for only 41 plays with Deshaun Watson since 2024.
16.5%
Cleveland lead by 8+
Carolina chase: they drop back on 67.9% of plays when trailing by seven or more. Volume for McMillan and Jalen Coker.

Share of games in which favourites of 1–4 points were in each position at half-time, 2022–25 regular seasons (589 games). Favourites won 61.3% overall. Team splits are from each starting quarterback's games since 2025 (Carolina) and 2024 (Cleveland).

The fantasy board

Who's set up, and who isn't

Buy-lowAny script

Tetairoa McMillan

Target share this season: 27.3%
Expected PPR per game from his usage: 18.5
Actual PPR per game: 12.8

His usage is worth 18.5 PPR a game and he's scored 12.8, with about a quarter of Carolina's targets in every game state. Jalen Coker's ankle could push more his way, although when Coker missed six games last season McMillan's share held at around 25%. The extra came from Carolina throwing more: 8.0 targets a game against 6.7.

Our number vs the line

Receiving yardsOurs 65.5Line 60.5 Above line

Ceiling playBest when Carolina lead

Chuba Hubbard

Share of Carolina's carries: 56.4%
Carries inside the 10: 5 of 6
Runs of 10+ yards Cleveland have allowed this season: 15.7%

Jonathon Brooks's move to injured reserve frees up the 23.1% of carries he'd been taking, and Hubbard already has 5 of Carolina's 6 carries inside the 10. Cleveland have allowed 10+ yards on 15.7% of runs this season. A lead helps, but less than you'd think: up by seven or more on Atlanta, Carolina still dropped back on 65% of plays. He's also scoring ahead of his usage (19.1 PPR a game against 13.7 expected).

Ceiling playAny script

Bryce Young

Completion % over expected

Before you read too much into Week 2

Carolina's 34–3 win came against an Atlanta side without Michael Penix Jr., who only returned on Thursday. Their pass defence grades above average with that game and weak without it, and a week earlier they allowed 59 points to Chicago.

Deshaun Watson has been sacked seven times, mostly by Jacksonville: a 16.7% sack rate that day, and 5.7% in Week 2.

The rest of the board

Jalen Coker (ankle) is questionable but expected to play. He has 27.3% of the targets, although he's scoring above his usage (24.2 PPR a game against 17.4 expected).
Harold Fannin Jr. runs a route on 81.5% of dropbacks, but Carolina have allowed tight ends 0.63 yards per route this season, against a league average of 1.29.
Jerry Jeudy has 9.6% of the targets and 0.53 yards per route run.

Sources & methodology

Written by an analyst from play-by-play, charting, route and snap data available before kickoff, with this season's figures read alongside last season's. Game-script shares describe regular-season games since 2022 with a similar point spread, not a forecast for this game. Our numbers are rough role-and-matchup expectations compared with posted lines, not betting advice. Early-season samples are limited; missing data is not treated as zero. This preview remains separate from the postgame review.

Data checked 27 Sept 2026, 16:20 UK time. Individual sources can update at different times.

Week 3 / Game Preview

Carolina have lost 59–37 and won 34–3: only their passing has looked the same

Bryce Young's passing grades strong in both games, and Cleveland's pass rush sits 23rd. Almost everything else about Carolina has swung from one week to the next.

3 min read

The number that matters0.28 EPA per dropback

Bryce Young this season, with Carolina's passing strong in both the 59–37 defeat and the 34–3 winCleveland's pass rush sits 23rd, below average by consensus

How it plays out

What each half-time score means for your lineup

24.1%
Carolina lead by 8+
Carolina drop back on 51.6% of plays when leading by seven or more, so more carries for Chuba Hubbard, but they kept throwing while well ahead of Atlanta.
27.8%
Carolina lead by 1–7
Tetairoa McMillan's share barely moves: about a quarter of the targets whatever the score.
8.1%
Level
Both offences stay close to their normal mix.
23.4%
Cleveland lead by 1–7
Little to go on: Cleveland have led by seven or more for only 41 plays with Deshaun Watson since 2024.
16.5%
Cleveland lead by 8+
Carolina chase: they drop back on 67.9% of plays when trailing by seven or more. Volume for McMillan and Jalen Coker.

The fantasy board

Who's set up, and who isn't

Buy-lowAny script

Tetairoa McMillan

Target share this season: 27.3%
Expected PPR per game from his usage: 18.5
Actual PPR per game: 12.8

Our number vs the line

Receiving yardsOurs 65.5Line 60.5 Above line

Ceiling playBest when Carolina lead

Chuba Hubbard

Share of Carolina's carries: 56.4%
Carries inside the 10: 5 of 6
Runs of 10+ yards Cleveland have allowed this season: 15.7%

Ceiling playAny script

Bryce Young

Completion % over expected

Before you read too much into Week 2

Deshaun Watson has been sacked seven times, mostly by Jacksonville: a 16.7% sack rate that day, and 5.7% in Week 2.

The rest of the board

Jalen Coker (ankle) is questionable but expected to play. He has 27.3% of the targets, although he's scoring above his usage (24.2 PPR a game against 17.4 expected).
Harold Fannin Jr. runs a route on 81.5% of dropbacks, but Carolina have allowed tight ends 0.63 yards per route this season, against a league average of 1.29.
Jerry Jeudy has 9.6% of the targets and 0.53 yards per route run.

Sources & methodology

Data checked 27 Sept 2026, 16:20 UK time. Individual sources can update at different times.

Panthers

Browns

Carolina have lost 59–37 and won 34–3: only their passing has looked the same

What each half-time score means for your lineup

Carolina lead by 8+

Carolina lead by 1–7

Level

Cleveland lead by 1–7

Cleveland lead by 8+

Who's set up, and who isn't

Tetairoa McMillan

Chuba Hubbard

Bryce Young

Before you read too much into Week 2

The rest of the board

Panthers

Browns

Carolina have lost 59–37 and won 34–3: only their passing has looked the same

What each half-time score means for your lineup

Carolina lead by 8+

Carolina lead by 1–7

Level

Cleveland lead by 1–7

Cleveland lead by 8+

Who's set up, and who isn't

Tetairoa McMillan

Chuba Hubbard

Bryce Young

Before you read too much into Week 2

The rest of the board

Quinshon Judkins

KC Concepcion

Denzel Boston

Quinshon Judkins

KC Concepcion

Denzel Boston