1. 37.3%

   Chiefs lead by 8+

   Walker's script: Kansas City drop back on only 53.8% of plays when leading by seven or more, against 66.7% when it's close.

2. 25.9%

   Chiefs lead by 1–7

   Travis Kelce's best script: 23.8% of the targets when the game is within six.

3. 9.5%

   Level

   Both offences stay close to their normal mix.

4. 17.7%

   Dolphins lead by 1–7

   De'Von Achane's carries hold up, and Mahomes throws more.

5. 9.5%

   Dolphins lead by 8+

   Kansas City drop back on 72.6% of plays when trailing by seven or more: volume for Kelce and Xavier Worthy.

Share of games in which favourites of 7.5–11.5 points were in each position at half-time, 2022–25 regular seasons (158 games). Favourites won 74.1% overall. Kansas City's splits are from Patrick Mahomes's games since 2025.

1. 37.3%

   Chiefs lead by 8+

   Walker's script: Kansas City drop back on only 53.8% of plays when leading by seven or more, against 66.7% when it's close.

2. 25.9%

   Chiefs lead by 1–7

   Travis Kelce's best script: 23.8% of the targets when the game is within six.

3. 9.5%

   Level

   Both offences stay close to their normal mix.

4. 17.7%

   Dolphins lead by 1–7

   De'Von Achane's carries hold up, and Mahomes throws more.

5. 9.5%

   Dolphins lead by 8+

   Kansas City drop back on 72.6% of plays when trailing by seven or more: volume for Kelce and Xavier Worthy.

Share of games in which favourites of 7.5–11.5 points were in each position at half-time, 2022–25 regular seasons (158 games). Favourites won 74.1% overall. Kansas City's splits are from Patrick Mahomes's games since 2025.