27 Sept, 21:25 BST
Caesars Superdome
Jeanty has 75.9% of the Raiders' carries and 22.4% of the targets, and he's scored less than that usage is usually worth. New Orleans' run defence is weak (26th). At the other end, Las Vegas's pass rush is strong (2nd).
The buy-low of the week: usage that big, against 21.5 points scored, and gaps of 5+ points have tended to close in our study. New Orleans' run defence is weak by consensus.
A big share on 91% of routes. He's scoring above his usage (25.4 a game), and Las Vegas's pass defence is above average (10th).
Plenty of volume, but the Raiders' pass rush is the league's second best.
A tough matchup, worth three or four points fewer than his usual.
Written by an analyst from play-by-play, charting, route and snap data available before kickoff, with this season's figures read alongside last season's. Game-script shares describe regular-season games since 2022 with a similar point spread, not a forecast for this game. Our numbers are rough role-and-matchup expectations compared with posted lines, not betting advice. Early-season samples are limited; missing data is not treated as zero. This preview remains separate from the postgame review.
Data checked 27 Sept 2026, 17:36 UK time. Individual sources can update at different times.
27 Sept, 21:25 BST
Caesars Superdome
Jeanty has 75.9% of the Raiders' carries and 22.4% of the targets, and he's scored less than that usage is usually worth. New Orleans' run defence is weak (26th). At the other end, Las Vegas's pass rush is strong (2nd).
The buy-low of the week: usage that big, against 21.5 points scored, and gaps of 5+ points have tended to close in our study. New Orleans' run defence is weak by consensus.
A big share on 91% of routes. He's scoring above his usage (25.4 a game), and Las Vegas's pass defence is above average (10th).
Plenty of volume, but the Raiders' pass rush is the league's second best.
A tough matchup, worth three or four points fewer than his usual.
Written by an analyst from play-by-play, charting, route and snap data available before kickoff, with this season's figures read alongside last season's. Game-script shares describe regular-season games since 2022 with a similar point spread, not a forecast for this game. Our numbers are rough role-and-matchup expectations compared with posted lines, not betting advice. Early-season samples are limited; missing data is not treated as zero. This preview remains separate from the postgame review.
Data checked 27 Sept 2026, 17:36 UK time. Individual sources can update at different times.
