27 Sept, 18:00 BST
EverBank Stadium
Jacksonville's passing looks strong, but mostly because of the Browns game, and New England's pass defence is strong (6th), helped by holding Pittsburgh down. At the other end, TreVeyon Henderson has taken over a backfield facing a run defence that's given up more than usual.
New England drop back on 69.3% of plays when trailing by seven or more, and Hunter Henry's share rises to about a quarter of the targets.
Brian Thomas Jr. and Washington both take a steady share in close games.
Both offences stay close to their normal mix.
Henderson's backfield to run: his share of the carries has been highest when the Patriots are ahead.
Jacksonville drop back on 70.9% of plays when trailing by seven or more: volume for Washington.
Share of games in which favourites of 1.5–4.5 points were in each position at half-time, 2022–25 regular seasons (579 games). Favourites won 62.5% overall. Team splits are from each starting quarterback's games since 2025.
The breakout of Jacksonville's season so far. He's earning targets on 39% of his routes, and deep ones. New England's coverage is the toughest test he's faced, but he's not on the injury report, and the volume is his.
He returned in Week 2 and took over: Rhamondre Stevenson had 72% of the carries in Week 1 and 25% in Week 2. A good matchup too, worth about a point more than his usual, although most of what Jacksonville have given up to backs came against Denver.
He's been sharp, but , worth two or three points fewer than his usual, and Jacksonville's strong passing numbers lean on the Browns game. A star doesn't get faded on the matchup alone, though, so he stays a floor play.
Written by an analyst from play-by-play, charting, route and snap data available before kickoff, with this season's figures read alongside last season's. Game-script shares describe regular-season games since 2022 with a similar point spread, not a forecast for this game. Our numbers are rough role-and-matchup expectations compared with posted lines, not betting advice. Early-season samples are limited; missing data is not treated as zero. This preview remains separate from the postgame review.
Data checked 27 Sept 2026, 16:20 UK time. Individual sources can update at different times.
27 Sept, 18:00 BST
EverBank Stadium
Jacksonville's passing looks strong, but mostly because of the Browns game, and New England's pass defence is strong (6th), helped by holding Pittsburgh down. At the other end, TreVeyon Henderson has taken over a backfield facing a run defence that's given up more than usual.
New England drop back on 69.3% of plays when trailing by seven or more, and Hunter Henry's share rises to about a quarter of the targets.
Brian Thomas Jr. and Washington both take a steady share in close games.
Both offences stay close to their normal mix.
Henderson's backfield to run: his share of the carries has been highest when the Patriots are ahead.
Jacksonville drop back on 70.9% of plays when trailing by seven or more: volume for Washington.
Share of games in which favourites of 1.5–4.5 points were in each position at half-time, 2022–25 regular seasons (579 games). Favourites won 62.5% overall. Team splits are from each starting quarterback's games since 2025.
The breakout of Jacksonville's season so far. He's earning targets on 39% of his routes, and deep ones. New England's coverage is the toughest test he's faced, but he's not on the injury report, and the volume is his.
He returned in Week 2 and took over: Rhamondre Stevenson had 72% of the carries in Week 1 and 25% in Week 2. A good matchup too, worth about a point more than his usual, although most of what Jacksonville have given up to backs came against Denver.
He's been sharp, but , worth two or three points fewer than his usual, and Jacksonville's strong passing numbers lean on the Browns game. A star doesn't get faded on the matchup alone, though, so he stays a floor play.
Written by an analyst from play-by-play, charting, route and snap data available before kickoff, with this season's figures read alongside last season's. Game-script shares describe regular-season games since 2022 with a similar point spread, not a forecast for this game. Our numbers are rough role-and-matchup expectations compared with posted lines, not betting advice. Early-season samples are limited; missing data is not treated as zero. This preview remains separate from the postgame review.
Data checked 27 Sept 2026, 16:20 UK time. Individual sources can update at different times.
A.J. Brown is on injured reserve, and most people will look to the next receiver. Our 2023–25 study says the tight end is usually the one who gains most when a team's lead receiver is out, and Henry's routes jumped in the first game without Brown.
Second fiddle to Washington for now, but his role is growing and his share holds in any script.
On the field but not in the offence: routes on nearly every dropback, and three targets to show for it.
A.J. Brown is on injured reserve, and most people will look to the next receiver. Our 2023–25 study says the tight end is usually the one who gains most when a team's lead receiver is out, and Henry's routes jumped in the first game without Brown.
Second fiddle to Washington for now, but his role is growing and his share holds in any script.
On the field but not in the offence: routes on nearly every dropback, and three targets to show for it.
