29 Sept, 01:15 BST
Soldier Field
Chicago's passing numbers belong to Caleb Williams, who is out with a hamstring injury. Their clearest strength is the run game (4th), led by D'Andre Swift, against a below-average Philadelphia run defence. At the other end, Saquon Barkley is back from his stinger, and Dallas Goedert is out.
Chicago have to throw without their starting quarterback, and Barkley's share of the carries has held around 60% even when the Eagles are well ahead.
Barkley's script: 69.4% of the carries when the game is within six.
Both offences stay close to their normal mix.
Swift's script: Chicago keep it on the ground.
Philadelphia chase, and DeVonta Smith's share holds in every game state.
Share of games in which favourites of 2–5 points were in each position at half-time, 2022–25 regular seasons (531 games). Favourites won 63.7% overall. Philadelphia's splits are from Jalen Hurts's games since 2025.
The 39.6% season share is misleading: he took 83% of the carries in Week 1, then left Week 2 after a stinger on the first play. He practised fully and is cleared, and Chicago's run defence is below average.
A third of the targets on every route, and Hollywood Brown and Goedert are both out, so there's even less competition. He's healthy after a full practice.
Chicago's best route with a backup quarterback, against a run defence that's below average. The Bears' run grade (4th) leans on the Carolina game, though. His usage is worth 18.9 PPR a game, although he's scoring above it, and Kyle Monangai (knee) is available to share.
Written by an analyst from play-by-play, charting, route and snap data available before kickoff, with this season's figures read alongside last season's. Game-script shares describe regular-season games since 2022 with a similar point spread, not a forecast for this game. Our numbers are rough role-and-matchup expectations compared with posted lines, not betting advice. Early-season samples are limited; missing data is not treated as zero. This preview remains separate from the postgame review.
Data checked 29 Sept 2026, 00:46 UK time. Individual sources can update at different times.
29 Sept, 01:15 BST
Soldier Field
Chicago's passing numbers belong to Caleb Williams, who is out with a hamstring injury. Their clearest strength is the run game (4th), led by D'Andre Swift, against a below-average Philadelphia run defence. At the other end, Saquon Barkley is back from his stinger, and Dallas Goedert is out.
Chicago have to throw without their starting quarterback, and Barkley's share of the carries has held around 60% even when the Eagles are well ahead.
Barkley's script: 69.4% of the carries when the game is within six.
Both offences stay close to their normal mix.
Swift's script: Chicago keep it on the ground.
Philadelphia chase, and DeVonta Smith's share holds in every game state.
Share of games in which favourites of 2–5 points were in each position at half-time, 2022–25 regular seasons (531 games). Favourites won 63.7% overall. Philadelphia's splits are from Jalen Hurts's games since 2025.
The 39.6% season share is misleading: he took 83% of the carries in Week 1, then left Week 2 after a stinger on the first play. He practised fully and is cleared, and Chicago's run defence is below average.
A third of the targets on every route, and Hollywood Brown and Goedert are both out, so there's even less competition. He's healthy after a full practice.
Chicago's best route with a backup quarterback, against a run defence that's below average. The Bears' run grade (4th) leans on the Carolina game, though. His usage is worth 18.9 PPR a game, although he's scoring above it, and Kyle Monangai (knee) is available to share.
Written by an analyst from play-by-play, charting, route and snap data available before kickoff, with this season's figures read alongside last season's. Game-script shares describe regular-season games since 2022 with a similar point spread, not a forecast for this game. Our numbers are rough role-and-matchup expectations compared with posted lines, not betting advice. Early-season samples are limited; missing data is not treated as zero. This preview remains separate from the postgame review.
Data checked 29 Sept 2026, 00:46 UK time. Individual sources can update at different times.
Dallas Goedert is out, and our 2023–25 study says the next tight end's targets roughly double when the lead TE misses. Mundt's routes jumped when Goedert got hurt in Week 2.
Accurate so far, against a pass defence that's below average, though that leans on the Carolina game. Philadelphia's pass protection is above average.
Usage well ahead of his output, the kind of gap that has tended to close. But the targets were Caleb Williams's, and a backup quarterback throws now.
Dallas Goedert is out, and our 2023–25 study says the next tight end's targets roughly double when the lead TE misses. Mundt's routes jumped when Goedert got hurt in Week 2.
Accurate so far, against a pass defence that's below average, though that leans on the Carolina game. Philadelphia's pass protection is above average.
Usage well ahead of his output, the kind of gap that has tended to close. But the targets were Caleb Williams's, and a backup quarterback throws now.
