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Wind, a backup quarterback and the lowest total on the slate: find the volume · SecondGM

Week 3 / Game Preview

Wind, a backup quarterback and the lowest total on the slate: find the volume

Jaxson Dart is out for the season, so Jameis Winston starts in a 17.9 mph wind. Neither passing game grades well, so the fantasy value sits with the players whose touches don't depend on the deep ball.

2 min read

The number that matters37.5 total points

The lowest total on the Week 3 slate, with the Giants 2.5-point favouritesWind tends to hurt quarterbacks most

How it plays out

What each half-time score means for your lineup

24.1%
Giants lead by 8+
Tennessee drop back on 73.7% of plays when trailing by seven or more: volume for Carnell Tate, fewer carries for Tony Pollard.
27.8%
Giants lead by 1–7
Cam Skattebo's script: a close game in the wind keeps the ball on the ground.
8.1%
Level
Both teams stay close to their normal mix.
23.4%
Titans lead by 1–7
Pollard's share holds in any script, at 65–70% of the carries.
16.5%
Titans lead by 8+
Winston has to throw more, with a 4.2% interception rate over his last eight games.

Share of games in which favourites of 1–4 points were in each position at half-time, 2022–25 regular seasons (589 games). Favourites won 61.3% overall. Tennessee's splits are from Cam Ward's games since 2025.

The fantasy board

Who's set up, and who isn't

Floor playAny script

Tony Pollard

Carry share in every game state: 65–70%
Expected PPR per game (6.0 actual): 9.1
RB points a game the Giants allow more than those teams usually score: 9.1

The steadiest workload in the game. The Giants have given backs 9.1 points a game above what those offences usually score, worth about a point to him. His usage is also ahead of his output, although by a margin that only points to a small bounce.

Our number vs the line

Rushing yardsOurs 57.9Line 46 Above line

Floor playBest when the game is close

Cam Skattebo

Share of the Giants' carries: 56.6%
Red-zone carries: 5 of 8
PPR per game (11.8 expected): 11.8

Wind and a backup quarterback point to more carries, and he's the Giants' goal-line back. He's scoring exactly what his usage is worth.

Our number vs the line

Rushing yardsOurs 59.7Line 57.5 Above line

The rest of the board

Isaiah Likely has 29.5% of the Giants' targets at a short 6.2-yard depth, but that volume came with Dart at quarterback.
Wan'Dale Robinson faces his old team and works short (4.1-yard average depth), with 15.6% of Tennessee's targets.

Sources & methodology

Written by an analyst from play-by-play, charting, route and snap data available before kickoff, with this season's figures read alongside last season's. Game-script shares describe regular-season games since 2022 with a similar point spread, not a forecast for this game. Our numbers are rough role-and-matchup expectations compared with posted lines, not betting advice. Early-season samples are limited; missing data is not treated as zero. This preview remains separate from the postgame review.

Data checked 27 Sept 2026, 16:20 UK time. Individual sources can update at different times.

Week 3 / Game Preview

Wind, a backup quarterback and the lowest total on the slate: find the volume

2 min read

The number that matters37.5 total points

The lowest total on the Week 3 slate, with the Giants 2.5-point favouritesWind tends to hurt quarterbacks most

How it plays out

What each half-time score means for your lineup

24.1%
Giants lead by 8+
Tennessee drop back on 73.7% of plays when trailing by seven or more: volume for Carnell Tate, fewer carries for Tony Pollard.
27.8%
Giants lead by 1–7
Cam Skattebo's script: a close game in the wind keeps the ball on the ground.
8.1%
Level
Both teams stay close to their normal mix.
23.4%
Titans lead by 1–7
Pollard's share holds in any script, at 65–70% of the carries.
16.5%
Titans lead by 8+
Winston has to throw more, with a 4.2% interception rate over his last eight games.

The fantasy board

Who's set up, and who isn't

Floor playAny script

Tony Pollard

Carry share in every game state: 65–70%
Expected PPR per game (6.0 actual): 9.1
RB points a game the Giants allow more than those teams usually score: 9.1

Our number vs the line

Rushing yardsOurs 57.9Line 46 Above line

Floor playBest when the game is close

Cam Skattebo

Share of the Giants' carries: 56.6%
Red-zone carries: 5 of 8
PPR per game (11.8 expected): 11.8

Wind and a backup quarterback point to more carries, and he's the Giants' goal-line back. He's scoring exactly what his usage is worth.

Our number vs the line

Rushing yardsOurs 59.7Line 57.5 Above line

The rest of the board

Isaiah Likely has 29.5% of the Giants' targets at a short 6.2-yard depth, but that volume came with Dart at quarterback.
Wan'Dale Robinson faces his old team and works short (4.1-yard average depth), with 15.6% of Tennessee's targets.

Sources & methodology

Data checked 27 Sept 2026, 16:20 UK time. Individual sources can update at different times.

Titans

Giants

Wind, a backup quarterback and the lowest total on the slate: find the volume

What each half-time score means for your lineup

Giants lead by 8+

Giants lead by 1–7

Level

Titans lead by 1–7

Titans lead by 8+

Who's set up, and who isn't

Tony Pollard

Cam Skattebo

The rest of the board

Titans

Giants

Wind, a backup quarterback and the lowest total on the slate: find the volume

What each half-time score means for your lineup

Giants lead by 8+

Giants lead by 1–7

Level

Titans lead by 1–7

Titans lead by 8+

Who's set up, and who isn't

Tony Pollard

Cam Skattebo

The rest of the board

Gunnar Helm

Carnell Tate

Malik Nabers

Jameis Winston

Gunnar Helm

Carnell Tate

Malik Nabers

Jameis Winston