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Dolphins
Away13–35
49ers
HomeFinal20 Sept, 21:25 BSTLevi's Stadium
Final · Details
20 Sept, 21:25 BST
Levi's Stadium
Week 2 / Game Preview
San Francisco's balance meets Miami's thin margin
Miami needs cleaner quarterback play while San Francisco sorts out a potentially shifting backfield.
01 / The takeaway
Willis faces a harsh efficiency test
Malik Willis opened with -8.85 completion percentage points over expectation and -0.17 EPA per pass play. Malik Willis now faces a defense allowing -0.35 EPA per dropback—4th-lowest in the NFL.
Malik Willis-8.85%CPOE
Malik Willis-0.17EPA/DB
Malik Willis-0.35Opp. EPA/dropback4th-lowest in the NFL allowed
02 / The takeaway
Douglas has the most convincing Miami receiving profile
Caleb Douglas has commanded a 25.93% target share and produced 2.94 yards per route run. Caleb Douglas faces a defense that has allowed 108 receiving yards per game to WRs—9th-fewest in the NFL.
Caleb Douglas25.93%Tgt%
Caleb Douglas2.94YPRR
Caleb Douglas108Opp. Rec yds/game to WRs9th-fewest in the NFL allowed
03 / The takeaway
McCaffrey's status could reshape the ground game
Christian McCaffrey is questionable after playing 55% of San Francisco's offensive snaps and taking 41.67% of its RB carries. Kaelon Black handled 58.33% of the RB carries, making his role worth monitoring if Christian McCaffrey cannot take on more work.
Christian McCaffrey55%Snap%
Christian McCaffrey41.67%Car%
Kaelon Black58.33%Car%
Miami's quarterback problem
Malik Willis completed 55.56% of his passes while facing pressure on 40.5% of dropbacks in the opener. Malik Willis faces a defense with a 0% sack rate—joint-lowest in the NFL, but San Francisco's allowance of 168 passing yards per game to QBs—8th-fewest in the NFL and 0 passing touchdowns per game to QBs—joint-fewest in the NFL still leaves little margin for Miami's passing game.
Malik Willis55.56%Completion rate
Malik Willis40.5%Prss%
Malik Willis0%Opp. Sack ratejoint-lowest in the NFL sack rate
Douglas and Washington carry the target load
Caleb Douglas posted 0.23 EPA per target, an efficient complement to his volume. Malik Washington owns a 29.63% target share and 43.69% of Miami's air yards, but Malik Washington recorded -0.4 EPA per target; the offense needs those downfield looks to convert.
Caleb Douglas5.28Avg. separation
Caleb Douglas0.23EPA/Tgt
Malik Washington29.63%Tgt%
Purdy's efficient start
Brock Purdy completed 73.53% of his passes and generated 0.14 EPA per pass play while facing pressure on just 8.3% of dropbacks. Brock Purdy faces a Miami defense that has allowed 3 passing touchdowns per game to QBs—joint-2nd-most in the NFL, a more inviting scoring signal than its 160 passing yards per game to QBs—5th-fewest in the NFL allowed.
Brock Purdy73.53%Completion rate
Brock Purdy0.14EPA/DB
Brock Purdy8.3%Prss%
San Francisco's backfield is the swing variable
Sources & methodology
AI analysis of the player usage, efficiency and matchup data available before kickoff. Opponent yardage, receptions, touchdowns and PPR points are per team game for the stated position group. EPA is per play; designed-run EPA includes all positions and excludes scrambles. Allowance ranks run from most to least; sack-rate ranks run from lowest to highest. Recent opponent figures use the last four played games, while recent player usage uses the last four calendar weeks. Early-season samples are limited; missing data is not treated as zero. This preview remains separate from the postgame review.
- NFL team depth charts via nflverse
- Betting markets and kickoff weather
- NFL player statistics via nflverse
Data checked 19 Sept 2026, 12:40 UK time. Individual sources can update at different times.