27 Sept, 18:00 BST
Lucas Oil Stadium
The Colts rank 30th against the run, 28th against the pass and 28th for pass rush, whichever game you leave out. Houston arrive without Nico Collins, so the question is who takes his targets, while Jonathan Taylor carries Indianapolis into a strong Texans run defence.
Indianapolis chase, and Taylor's share of the carries has still been 92.9% when the Colts trail by seven or more.
Houston stay balanced, and Dalton Schultz's share holds at around a fifth of the targets in every state.
Both offences stay close to their normal mix.
Taylor's script: 86.3% of the carries when the game is within six.
Houston drop back on 82.6% of plays when trailing by seven or more: volume for Schultz and the receivers.
Share of games in which favourites of 0–3 points were in each position at half-time, 2022–25 regular seasons (436 games). Favourites won 58.9% overall. Team splits are from each starting quarterback's games since 2025.
A superstar workload. Every red-zone carry, and the usage alone is worth 21.8 PPR a game. Houston's run defence is strong (8th), but a back doing all of this doesn't need a soft matchup.
The best quarterback matchup in this game, worth two or three points more than his usual, behind a line facing a weak pass rush. His own start has been flat (−0.04 EPA per dropback), and he's without his top receiver.
Most people will look to the next receiver with Collins out. Our 2023–25 study says the tight end usually gains most, and Schultz already has a quarter of Houston's targets.
Written by an analyst from play-by-play, charting, route and snap data available before kickoff, with this season's figures read alongside last season's. Game-script shares describe regular-season games since 2022 with a similar point spread, not a forecast for this game. Our numbers are rough role-and-matchup expectations compared with posted lines, not betting advice. Early-season samples are limited; missing data is not treated as zero. This preview remains separate from the postgame review.
Data checked 27 Sept 2026, 17:12 UK time. Individual sources can update at different times.
27 Sept, 18:00 BST
Lucas Oil Stadium
The Colts rank 30th against the run, 28th against the pass and 28th for pass rush, whichever game you leave out. Houston arrive without Nico Collins, so the question is who takes his targets, while Jonathan Taylor carries Indianapolis into a strong Texans run defence.
Indianapolis chase, and Taylor's share of the carries has still been 92.9% when the Colts trail by seven or more.
Houston stay balanced, and Dalton Schultz's share holds at around a fifth of the targets in every state.
Both offences stay close to their normal mix.
Taylor's script: 86.3% of the carries when the game is within six.
Houston drop back on 82.6% of plays when trailing by seven or more: volume for Schultz and the receivers.
Share of games in which favourites of 0–3 points were in each position at half-time, 2022–25 regular seasons (436 games). Favourites won 58.9% overall. Team splits are from each starting quarterback's games since 2025.
A superstar workload. Every red-zone carry, and the usage alone is worth 21.8 PPR a game. Houston's run defence is strong (8th), but a back doing all of this doesn't need a soft matchup.
The best quarterback matchup in this game, worth two or three points more than his usual, behind a line facing a weak pass rush. His own start has been flat (−0.04 EPA per dropback), and he's without his top receiver.
Most people will look to the next receiver with Collins out. Our 2023–25 study says the tight end usually gains most, and Schultz already has a quarter of Houston's targets.
Written by an analyst from play-by-play, charting, route and snap data available before kickoff, with this season's figures read alongside last season's. Game-script shares describe regular-season games since 2022 with a similar point spread, not a forecast for this game. Our numbers are rough role-and-matchup expectations compared with posted lines, not betting advice. Early-season samples are limited; missing data is not treated as zero. This preview remains separate from the postgame review.
Data checked 27 Sept 2026, 17:12 UK time. Individual sources can update at different times.
All of the goal-line work against a run defence ranked 30th, but his share of the carries fell in Week 2.
The number most people won't know: Marks led Houston's backfield in carries last week, and he's getting more of the passing work. He has had almost none of the goal-line touches, but the yards between the 20s against the 30th-ranked run defence may be his.
Usage that's worth almost twice what he's scored, the kind of gap that has tended to close, and Collins's absence only adds to it.
Good on usage, not on matchup. Houston's pass defence is average once the Buffalo game is set aside.
All of the goal-line work against a run defence ranked 30th, but his share of the carries fell in Week 2.
The number most people won't know: Marks led Houston's backfield in carries last week, and he's getting more of the passing work. He has had almost none of the goal-line touches, but the yards between the 20s against the 30th-ranked run defence may be his.
Usage that's worth almost twice what he's scored, the kind of gap that has tended to close, and Collins's absence only adds to it.
Good on usage, not on matchup. Houston's pass defence is average once the Buffalo game is set aside.
