27 Sept, 18:00 BST
Northwest Stadium
Seattle's defence is strong on every measure, and Washington start Marcus Mariota for the injured Jayden Daniels. At the other end, Jaxon Smith-Njigba has 44% of Seattle's targets against a Washington pass defence that's weak (29th).
The clock-killing script. Seattle drop back on only 48.1% of plays when leading by seven or more: carries for Jadarian Price and Emanuel Wilson.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba's share barely moves: about 36% of the targets whether Seattle lead or it's close.
Both offences stay close to their normal mix.
Terry McLaurin's usage has a chance to turn into points.
Seattle have to throw, which only adds to Smith-Njigba's volume.
Share of games in which favourites of 7–10 points were in each position at half-time, 2022–25 regular seasons (182 games). Favourites won 72.0% overall. Seattle's splits are from Sam Darnold's games since 2025.
On an absolute tear, and the usage behind it is elite on its own: worth 20.0 PPR a game. Sam Darnold is back, the quarterback he had his huge 2025 with, and Washington's pass defence is weak (29th).
His usage is well ahead of his output, the kind of gap that has tended to close over the rest of a season. This week is the wrong one to buy: Marcus Mariota starts, and Seattle have allowed the fewest WR fantasy points.
Seattle run more than anyone (27.7 designed runs a game), and with Sam Darnold they drop back on only 48.1% of plays when leading by seven or more, so a lead should mean plenty of carries. They're shared, though:
Washington's run defence has allowed the fewest RB fantasy points, so this is about volume, not the matchup.
Written by an analyst from play-by-play, charting, route and snap data available before kickoff, with this season's figures read alongside last season's. Game-script shares describe regular-season games since 2022 with a similar point spread, not a forecast for this game. Our numbers are rough role-and-matchup expectations compared with posted lines, not betting advice. Early-season samples are limited; missing data is not treated as zero. This preview remains separate from the postgame review.
Data checked 27 Sept 2026, 16:53 UK time. Individual sources can update at different times.
27 Sept, 18:00 BST
Northwest Stadium
Seattle's defence is strong on every measure, and Washington start Marcus Mariota for the injured Jayden Daniels. At the other end, Jaxon Smith-Njigba has 44% of Seattle's targets against a Washington pass defence that's weak (29th).
The clock-killing script. Seattle drop back on only 48.1% of plays when leading by seven or more: carries for Jadarian Price and Emanuel Wilson.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba's share barely moves: about 36% of the targets whether Seattle lead or it's close.
Both offences stay close to their normal mix.
Terry McLaurin's usage has a chance to turn into points.
Seattle have to throw, which only adds to Smith-Njigba's volume.
Share of games in which favourites of 7–10 points were in each position at half-time, 2022–25 regular seasons (182 games). Favourites won 72.0% overall. Seattle's splits are from Sam Darnold's games since 2025.
On an absolute tear, and the usage behind it is elite on its own: worth 20.0 PPR a game. Sam Darnold is back, the quarterback he had his huge 2025 with, and Washington's pass defence is weak (29th).
His usage is well ahead of his output, the kind of gap that has tended to close over the rest of a season. This week is the wrong one to buy: Marcus Mariota starts, and Seattle have allowed the fewest WR fantasy points.
Seattle run more than anyone (27.7 designed runs a game), and with Sam Darnold they drop back on only 48.1% of plays when leading by seven or more, so a lead should mean plenty of carries. They're shared, though:
Washington's run defence has allowed the fewest RB fantasy points, so this is about volume, not the matchup.
Written by an analyst from play-by-play, charting, route and snap data available before kickoff, with this season's figures read alongside last season's. Game-script shares describe regular-season games since 2022 with a similar point spread, not a forecast for this game. Our numbers are rough role-and-matchup expectations compared with posted lines, not betting advice. Early-season samples are limited; missing data is not treated as zero. This preview remains separate from the postgame review.
Data checked 27 Sept 2026, 16:53 UK time. Individual sources can update at different times.
Scoring about five points a game above what his usage is usually worth, and now catching passes from a backup quarterback against the league's 2nd-best pass defence.
Seattle's goal-line back. His Week 2 workload came partly from Price's injury, so expect a smaller share of the carries, but the short-yardage touches look like his.
Scoring about five points a game above what his usage is usually worth, and now catching passes from a backup quarterback against the league's 2nd-best pass defence.
Seattle's goal-line back. His Week 2 workload came partly from Price's injury, so expect a smaller share of the carries, but the short-yardage touches look like his.
