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HomeFinal20 Sept, 21:05 BSTEmpower Field at Mile High
Final · Details
20 Sept, 21:05 BST
Empower Field at Mile High
Week 2 / Game Preview
Jacksonville’s ground-game opening meets Denver’s passing squeeze
The Jaguars bring the clearest efficiency edge, while Denver will need to turn workload into production against a difficult front.
01 / The takeaway
Tuten has the matchup edge
Bhayshul Tuten handled a 60% RB carry share in the opener and now faces a defense that has allowed 197 rushing yards per game to RBs—2nd-most in the NFL.
Bhayshul Tuten60%Car%
Bhayshul Tuten197Opp. Rush yds/game to RBs2nd-most in the NFL allowed
02 / The takeaway
Lawrence meets a receiver-resistant secondary
Trevor Lawrence posted 0.79 passing EPA per play. Brian Thomas Jr. faces a defense that has allowed only 37 receiving yards per game to WRs—fewest in the NFL.
Trevor Lawrence0.79EPA/DB
Brian Thomas Jr.37Opp. Rec yds/game to WRsfewest in the NFL allowed
03 / The takeaway
Nix faces a difficult corrective spot
Bo Nix produced -0.45 passing EPA per play, and he faces a defense allowing -0.23 EPA per dropback—7th-lowest in the NFL.
Bo Nix-0.45EPA/DB
Bo Nix-0.23Opp. EPA/dropback7th-lowest in the NFL allowed
Run where Denver has leaked
Tuten’s 15 carries and an expected 8.05 rushing fantasy points per game show meaningful early opportunity. Tuten faces Denver allowing 0.31 EPA per designed run—highest in the NFL. His own share of the backfield still matters: Chris Rodriguez Jr. took a 24% share of RB carries.
Bhayshul Tuten15Car
Bhayshul Tuten8.05xRush/G
Bhayshul Tuten0.35RYOE/Car
Jacksonville’s passing test
Lawrence completed 78.26% of his passes with a 22.33 completion percentage points over expectation, and his 70.83% passing success rate supports the strong opener. The challenge is Denver’s opponent-wide-receiver profile: Brian Thomas Jr. faces a defense that has allowed only 5 receptions per game to WRs—2nd-fewest in the NFL and 37 receiving yards per game to WRs—fewest in the NFL. Parker Washington is listed questionable, which matters after he commanded a 28.57% target share and 42.15% air-yards share.
Trevor Lawrence78.26%Completion rate
Trevor Lawrence22.33%CPOE
Trevor Lawrence70.83%Success%
Denver needs Nix to solve pressure
Nix’s -7.78 completion percentage points over expectation and 40.63% passing success rate describe a difficult opener. Nix faces a defense with a 16.67% sack rate—highest in the NFL. Nix also faces an allowance of 205 passing yards per game to QBs—joint-14th-fewest in the NFL. Protection is a clear question, although the defensive sample is small.
Bo Nix-7.78%CPOE
Bo Nix40.63%Success%
Bo Nix16.67%Opp. Sack ratehighest in the NFL sack rate
Sources & methodology
AI analysis of the player usage, efficiency and matchup data available before kickoff. Opponent yardage, receptions, touchdowns and PPR points are per team game for the stated position group. EPA is per play; designed-run EPA includes all positions and excludes scrambles. Allowance ranks run from most to least; sack-rate ranks run from lowest to highest. Recent opponent figures use the last four played games, while recent player usage uses the last four calendar weeks. Early-season samples are limited; missing data is not treated as zero. This preview remains separate from the postgame review.
- NFL team depth charts via nflverse
- Betting markets and kickoff weather
- NFL player statistics via nflverse
Data checked 19 Sept 2026, 12:40 UK time. Individual sources can update at different times.