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Jaguars
Away—–—
Broncos
HomeUpcoming20 Sept, 21:05 BSTEmpower Field at Mile High
Game details
20 Sept, 21:05 BST
Empower Field at Mile High
Week 2 / Game Preview
Jacksonville’s ground-game opening meets Denver’s passing squeeze
The Jaguars bring the clearest efficiency edge, while Denver will need to turn workload into production against a difficult front.
01 / The takeaway
Tuten has the matchup edge
Bhayshul Tuten handled a 60% carry share in the opener and now faces a defense that has allowed 197 rushing yards to opposing backs.
Bhayshul Tuten60%Car%
Bhayshul Tuten197Opp. Rush yds
02 / The takeaway
Lawrence meets a receiver-resistant secondary
Trevor Lawrence posted 0.79 passing EPA per play. Brian Thomas Jr. faces a defense that has allowed only 37 receiving yards to opposing wide receivers.
Trevor Lawrence0.79EPA/DB
Brian Thomas Jr.37Opp. Rec yds
03 / The takeaway
Nix faces a difficult corrective spot
Bo Nix produced -0.45 passing EPA per play, and he faces a defense allowing -0.23 EPA per opposing dropback.
Bo Nix-0.45EPA/DB
Bo Nix-0.23Opp. EPA/dropback
Run where Denver has leaked
Tuten’s 15 carries and an expected 8.05 rushing fantasy points per game show that Jacksonville gave him meaningful early-down opportunity. Tuten faces a Denver defense that has allowed 0.31 EPA per designed run to opposing backs. His 48.5-yard rushing prop is notably below the volume-and-matchup case, although Chris Rodriguez Jr. still took 24% of Jacksonville’s carries.
Bhayshul Tuten15Car
Bhayshul Tuten8.05xRush/G
Bhayshul Tuten0.35RYOE/Car
Jacksonville’s passing test
Lawrence completed 78.26% of his passes with a 22.33 completion percentage points over expectation, and his 70.83% passing success rate supports the strong opener. The challenge is Denver’s opponent-wide-receiver profile: Brian Thomas Jr. faces a defense that has allowed only 5 receptions and 37 receiving yards to opposing wideouts. Parker Washington is listed questionable, which matters after he commanded a 28.57% target share and 42.15% air-yards share.
Trevor Lawrence78.26%Completion rate
Trevor Lawrence22.33%CPOE
Trevor Lawrence70.83%Success%
Denver needs Nix to solve pressure
Nix’s -7.78 completion percentage points over expectation and 40.63% passing success rate describe an offense that struggled to stay on schedule. Nix does get a potential protection test: he faces a defense with a 16.67% sack rate against opposing quarterbacks. Jacksonville also has allowed just 205 passing yards to opposing quarterbacks, so Denver may need more than Nix’s 221.5-yard passing prop implies to unlock its perimeter receivers.
Bo Nix-7.78%CPOE
Bo Nix40.63%Success%
Bo Nix16.67%
Sources & methodology
AI analysis of the player usage, efficiency and matchup data available before kickoff. Early-season samples are limited; missing data is not treated as zero. This preview remains separate from the postgame review.
- NFL team depth charts via nflverse
- Betting markets and kickoff weather
- NFL player statistics via nflverse
Data checked 19 Sept 2026, 12:40 UK time. Individual sources can update at different times.