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HomeFinal20 Sept, 18:00 BSTSoldier Field
Final · Details
20 Sept, 18:00 BST
Soldier Field
Week 2 / Game Preview
A volatile passing matchup frames Vikings at Bears
Chicago’s efficient opening performance meets a Minnesota defense that has already yielded production through the air, while Minnesota’s offense leans heavily on its premier receiver.
01 / The takeaway
Jefferson owns Minnesota’s offensive opportunity
Justin Jefferson commanded a 39.13% target share and a 45.45% air-yards share in the opener, leaving him as Minnesota’s clear offensive fulcrum. Justin Jefferson also drew 3 red-zone targets, and he faces a Chicago matchup that has allowed 213 receiving yards per game to WRs—4th-most in the NFL.
Justin Jefferson39.13%Tgt%
Justin Jefferson45.45%Air%
Justin Jefferson3RZ Tgt
02 / The takeaway
Williams has an efficiency edge, but pressure matters
Caleb Williams produced a 72.41% completion rate, a 16.58% completion percentage above expectation, and 0.6 EPA per play in his opening start. Caleb Williams faces a Minnesota defense with an 8.7% sack rate—8th-highest in the NFL, even though that defense has allowed 387 passing yards per game to QBs—2nd-most in the NFL.
Caleb Williams72.41%Completion rate
Caleb Williams16.58%CPOE
Caleb Williams0.6EPA/DB
Jefferson’s matchup is the Vikings’ best lever
Justin Jefferson was productive as well as featured, posting 3.07 yards per route run and 1.39 EPA per target. His 79.5 receiving-yard line asks for a sizable result, but Justin Jefferson’s workload already supports a central role against Chicago. T.J. Hockenson provides a short-area complement after earning a 21.74% target share and 2 red-zone targets.
Justin Jefferson3.07YPRR
Justin Jefferson1.39EPA/Tgt
Justin Jefferson79.5Rec yds line
Chicago’s receiving hierarchy has early surprises
Kalif Raymond led Chicago with a 34.62% target share and delivered 3.82 yards per route run, despite his 23.5 receiving-yard line. Luther Burden III is questionable, but Luther Burden III still ran 27 routes and saw a 19.23% target share in the opener. Rome Odunze operated on a more downfield profile, with a 28.21% air-yards share, and Rome Odunze faces a defense that has allowed 272 receiving yards per game to WRs—2nd-most in the NFL.
Kalif Raymond34.62%Tgt%
Kalif Raymond3.82YPRR
Kalif Raymond23.5Rec yds line
Swift has the volume, Minnesota has the resistance
D’Andre Swift handled a 64.29% RB carry share, including 6 red-zone carries and 3 goal-line carries, giving Chicago a clear rushing foundation. D’Andre Swift was also efficient at 6.89 yards per carry and 0.51 EPA per carry. The counterweight is difficult: D’Andre Swift faces a Minnesota defense that has allowed -0.43 EPA per designed run—lowest in the NFL and 66 rushing yards per game to RBs—11th-fewest in the NFL, while his rushing line sits at 61 yards.
D'Andre Swift64.29%Car%
D'Andre Swift6RZ Car
Sources & methodology
AI analysis of the player usage, efficiency and matchup data available before kickoff. Opponent yardage, receptions, touchdowns and PPR points are per team game for the stated position group. EPA is per play; designed-run EPA includes all positions and excludes scrambles. Allowance ranks run from most to least; sack-rate ranks run from lowest to highest. Recent opponent figures use the last four played games, while recent player usage uses the last four calendar weeks. Early-season samples are limited; missing data is not treated as zero. This preview remains separate from the postgame review.
- NFL team depth charts via nflverse
- Betting markets and kickoff weather
- NFL player statistics via nflverse
Data checked 19 Sept 2026, 12:37 UK time. Individual sources can update at different times.