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HomeFinal20 Sept, 18:00 BSTGillette Stadium
Final · Details
20 Sept, 18:00 BST
Gillette Stadium
Week 2 / Game Preview
Week 2 preview: Patriots’ short-game test meets Steelers’ pressure
New England’s concentrated backfield role and Pittsburgh’s unsettled passing efficiency shape a matchup with limited margin for error.
01 / The takeaway
Maye’s accuracy meets Pittsburgh’s disruptive opening profile
Drake Maye posted 5.97 completion percentage points over expectation, but Drake Maye also produced -0.13 EPA per play. Drake Maye faces a Pittsburgh defense that has allowed -0.61 EPA per dropback—lowest in the NFL and carries a 15.38% sack rate—2nd-highest in the NFL.
Drake Maye5.97%CPOE
Drake Maye-0.13EPA/DB
Drake Maye-0.61Opp. EPA/dropbacklowest in the NFL allowed
02 / The takeaway
Stevenson owns the workload, not the rushing efficiency
Rhamondre Stevenson handled a 75% RB carry share and played 85% of New England’s offensive snaps. Rhamondre Stevenson averaged 2.83 yards per carry with -0.45 EPA per carry, creating a major tension between role security and the early production.
Rhamondre Stevenson75%Car%
Rhamondre Stevenson85%Snap%
Rhamondre Stevenson2.83YPC
03 / The takeaway
Metcalf is the Steelers’ high-leverage question
DK Metcalf owns a 27.03% target share and 50.12% of Pittsburgh’s air yards, so his questionable designation matters beyond a single receiver spot. DK Metcalf’s -0.54 receiving EPA per target shows that the vertical volume has not yet translated into efficient output.
DK Metcalf27.03%Tgt%
DK Metcalf50.12%Air%
DK Metcalf-0.54EPA/Tgt
A pressure test for New England’s passing plan
Drake Maye’s passing-yardage line sits at 224.5 yards, even as Drake Maye faces a Pittsburgh defense that has allowed only 143 passing yards per game to QBs—3rd-fewest in the NFL. Drake Maye completed 69.7% of his throws, which suggests the Patriots can stay on schedule if they avoid the pressure events that have tilted Pittsburgh’s early defensive results.
Drake Maye224.5Pass yds line
Drake Maye143Opp. Pass yds/game to QBs3rd-fewest in the NFL allowed
Drake Maye69.7%Completion rate
Stevenson’s receiving work can matter
Rhamondre Stevenson commanded a 19.35% target share and ran 29 routes, making him more than a pure early-down option. Rhamondre Stevenson faces a defense that has allowed 8 receptions per game to RBs—joint-most in the NFL, while Rhamondre Stevenson’s receiving line is 2.5 catches.
Rhamondre Stevenson19.35%Tgt%
Rhamondre Stevenson29Routes
Rhamondre Stevenson8Opp. Catches/game to RBsjoint-most in the NFL allowed
Rodgers needs a cleaner conversion rate
Aaron Rodgers attempted 40 passes but generated -0.19 EPA per play and a 35.71% passing success rate. Aaron Rodgers faces a New England defense that has allowed 0.23 EPA per dropback—10th-highest in the NFL, a matchup that leaves room for a rebound if Pittsburgh’s high-air-yards approach becomes more efficient.
Aaron Rodgers40Att
Aaron Rodgers-0.19EPA/DB
Aaron Rodgers35.71%Success%
Sources & methodology
AI analysis of the player usage, efficiency and matchup data available before kickoff. Opponent yardage, receptions, touchdowns and PPR points are per team game for the stated position group. EPA is per play; designed-run EPA includes all positions and excludes scrambles. Allowance ranks run from most to least; sack-rate ranks run from lowest to highest. Recent opponent figures use the last four played games, while recent player usage uses the last four calendar weeks. Early-season samples are limited; missing data is not treated as zero. This preview remains separate from the postgame review.
- NFL team depth charts via nflverse
- Betting markets and kickoff weather
- NFL player statistics via nflverse
Data checked 19 Sept 2026, 12:34 UK time. Individual sources can update at different times.